FC Arouca v Paços de Ferreira
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca drew with Paços de Ferreira 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Rafa Mújica for 1+ shots total (98%, had 9). Its clearest miss: Matchoi Djaló for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mújica | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 9 | ✓ |
| Alan Ruiz | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fábio Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antony Alves | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nigel Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matchoi Djaló | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hernani Infande | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolás Gaitán | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Paulo Bernardo | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafa Mújica | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morlaye Sylla | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nigel Thomas | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Gomes | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Paços de Ferreira 1–1 FC Arouca Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v Paços de Ferreira?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v Paços de Ferreira?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matchoi Djaló at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.