Moreirense v FC Alverca
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Moreirense beat FC Alverca 2–1, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Guilherme Schettine for 1+ shots total (86%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Chiquinho for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiquinho | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guilherme Schettine | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cedric Teguia | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benny | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alan | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Guilherme Schettine | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kiko Bondoso | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dinis Pinto | shots total | 1+ | 51% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cedric Teguia | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chiquinho | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan | shots on target | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benny | shots on target | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lawrence Ofori | shots total | 1+ | 41% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Esteves | shots total | 1+ | 41% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Alverca 2–1 Moreirense Jan 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Moreirense v FC Alverca?
5 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Moreirense v FC Alverca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Chiquinho at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.