Moreirense v Marítimo
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Moreirense beat Marítimo 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Martín Tejón for 1+ shots total (96%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Adrián Butzke for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Butzke | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martín Tejón | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Alexandre Parsemain | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manuel Mendonça | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Andrade | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Landerson | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nile John | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maxime Dominguez | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Limbombe | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateja Stjepanović | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Israel Ayuma | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raphael Guzzo | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexandre Parsemain | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martín Tejón | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Moreirense v Marítimo?
5 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Moreirense v Marítimo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adrián Butzke at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.