Paços de Ferreira v Gil Vicente
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paços de Ferreira beat Gil Vicente 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Fran Navarro for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Vítor Carvalho for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fran Navarro | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Juan Boselli | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nigel Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Adrián Butzke | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ali Alipour | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Murilo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolás Gaitán | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fran Navarro | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ali Alipour | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vítor Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juan Boselli | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kanya Fujimoto | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 4 | ✓ |
| Luiz Carlos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Gil Vicente 1–0 Paços de Ferreira Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paços de Ferreira v Gil Vicente?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paços de Ferreira v Gil Vicente?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vítor Carvalho at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.