Portimonense v AVS - Futebol SAD
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Portimonense lost to AVS - Futebol SAD 1–2, the SharpXI model made 7 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Carlinhos for 1+ shots total (96%, had 6). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlinhos | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 6 | ✓ |
| Hélio Varela | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ronie Carrillo | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Ventura | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Taichi Fukui | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 5 | ✓ |
| Carlinhos | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hélio Varela | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronie Carrillo | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Costa | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guga | shots total | 1+ | 45% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alemão | shots total | 1+ | 41% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pedrão | shots total | 1+ | 39% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Formiga | shots total | 1+ | 39% | 0 | ✗ |
| Moustapha Seck | shots total | 1+ | 39% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AVS - Futebol SAD 2–1 Portimonense Jun 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Portimonense v AVS - Futebol SAD?
7 of its 7 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Portimonense v AVS - Futebol SAD?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.