Vitória SC v FC Alverca
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Vitória SC drew with FC Alverca 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Gustavo Silva for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Gustavo Silva for 1+ shots on target (62%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Silva | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alioune Ndoye | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Noah Saviolo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samu | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marko Milovanović | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Figueiredo | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lincoln | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Sousa | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chiquinho | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Silva | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alioune Ndoye | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marko Milovanović | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Alverca 2–0 Vitória SC Sep 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Vitória SC v FC Alverca?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Vitória SC v FC Alverca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gustavo Silva at 62% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.