The player report — Monday 12 to Friday 16 October
This is a snapshot of the player report as it stood on 2026-10-11 — the prices are the
ones captured then, and will have moved since.
See the current player report
Every priced selection the model rates above its edge floor, grouped by match. Prices captured 2026-10-11 20:30. These are not live prices.
Selections44
Fixtures14
Price bands7
Best of the report
The strongest evidence on the board — ranked on record and confidence, never on the biggest price gap. One selection per player.
Paulo Dybala , to have 1 or more shots on targetSame as Over 0.5
AS Roma
Started at attacking midfielder in 67% of recent starts.
AS Roma v Real MadridWed 14 Oct, 20:00
Our model says
71.4%
The price implies
58.5%
Last 10 matches
6 of 10
Last 20 matches
14 of 20
Also at
2/51.40
bet365
Why the model rates this
Usual rate
1.11
per 90, over 76 matches’ worth of minutes
Expected here
1.2
this match
Paulo Dybala reached 1 or more shots on target in 6 of the last 10, and 14 of the last 20.
Real Madrid concede 14% more shots on target than the average side, which pushes the number up.
2 bookmakers price this leg, 22% apart — enough of a gap that the book you hold matters.
Higher lines, same market
| Line | Record | Price | Model | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+Same as Over 1.5 | 3 of 106 of 20 | BetMGM11/43.90bet365 7/42.75 | 29.2%† | 25.6% |
| 3+Same as Over 2.5 | 0 of 100 of 20 | bet3657/18.00 | Record only | |
† No fitted calibration map at this
line, so the raw model number is shown.
1 of 44 shown
43 more selections are locked Each one reads exactly like the card above — the model’s number beside the price, the recent form, and the reasoning in plain English.
14 fixtures
7 price bands
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Every selection
Build a slip from these filters
All 44 selections across 14 fixtures, grouped by match.
Atalanta v Venezia
Mon 12 Oct, 17:30
3 LOCKED
Torino v Udinese
Mon 12 Oct, 19:45
2 LOCKED
Coventry City v Newcastle United
Mon 12 Oct, 20:00
4 LOCKED
Levante UD v Sevilla
Mon 12 Oct, 20:00
15 LOCKED
RC Lens v Sporting CP
Tue 13 Oct, 17:45
1 LOCKED
Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion
Tue 13 Oct, 19:45
1 LOCKED
Arsenal v Lille
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00
1 LOCKED
Atlético Madrid v Manchester United
Tue 13 Oct, 20:00
1 LOCKED
Feyenoord v Como
Wed 14 Oct, 17:45
3 LOCKED
AS Roma v Real Madrid
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00
3 LOCKED
ŠK Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart
Wed 14 Oct, 20:00
5 LOCKED
Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45
1 LOCKED
Torreense v Sunderland
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45
2 LOCKED
Le Mans v Toulouse
Fri 16 Oct, 19:45
2 LOCKED
EARLIER BOARDS
Snapshots, kept so older links still work. The prices in them have moved.