Fouls committed — modelling a player's foul count
Player fouls committed (1+, 2+) rewards knowing which players actually give away free kicks — and against whom. SharpXI models the foul rate and the opponent's tendency to draw fouls.
How SharpXI models it
A recency-weighted per-90 foul rate, shrunk toward a positional prior, scaled by minutes and adjusted by how many fouls the opposition tends to draw. A Negative Binomial gives P(fouls ≥ line). Fouls are quoted one side only, so the margin cannot be removed from the price and stays in the comparison.
Go deeper: How we model fouls
Where the value tends to sit
Defensive midfielders and full-backs against pacey, dribble-heavy opponents are the natural home of foul value — the sort of match-up detail the market glosses over.
Scottish Premiership — how this market behaves
Across 1,171 graded Scottish Premiership predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ foul committed in 54.0% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 15.4% here, against Serie A 15.7%, La Liga 14.2%, Bundesliga 14.1%, UEFA Nations League 13.9%, UEFA Champions League 13.7%, Championship 13.7%, UEFA Europa League 13.3%, Ligue 1 12.9%, EFL Cup 11.8% and Premier League 10.3%
Scottish Premiership leaders this season
In the 26/27 Scottish Premiership season, Toyosi Olusanya (Aberdeen) leads for fouls committed at 3.40 per 90, ahead of Ryan Don Naderi (2.93) and Dylan Tait (2.66). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyosi Olusanya | Aberdeen | 3.40 | 86% |
| Ryan Don Naderi | Rangers | 2.93 | 100% |
| Dylan Tait | Dundee United | 2.66 | 100% |
| Ryan Carr | St. Mirren | 2.48 | 88% |
| Paul Nsio | St. Mirren | 2.43 | 100% |
| Enes Alić | St. Johnstone | 2.33 | 100% |
| Brad Spencer | Falkirk FC | 2.22 | 83% |
| Josh Mulligan | Hibernian | 2.17 | 100% |
| Laurent Mendy | Heart of Midlothian | 2.16 | 71% |
| Finley Barbrook | Falkirk FC | 2.13 | 86% |
| Reece McAlear | St. Johnstone | 2.00 | 75% |
| Tyreece John-Jules | Kilmarnock | 1.87 | 62% |
Frequently asked
What counts as a foul committed?
A foul the player concedes, per the match-data provider. Fouls won (drawn) are a separate market.
Are fouls a good bet-builder leg?
They can be strong value because the market prices them coarsely, but sample sizes vary — SharpXI shows a confidence rating so you can weight thin data appropriately.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.