Empoli v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Empoli drew with Spezia 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Kevin Agudelo for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro for 1+ tackles (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Agudelo | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniele Verde | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eldor Shomurodov | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Roberto Piccoli | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Francesco Caputo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liberato Cacace | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Gyasi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Petar Stojanović | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kelvin Amian | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Francesco Caputo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Filippo Bandinelli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 1–0 Empoli Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Empoli v Spezia?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Empoli v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro at 90% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.