Hellas Verona v Sampdoria
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hellas Verona beat Sampdoria 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Francesco Caputo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Manolo Gabbiadini for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Caputo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Manolo Gabbiadini | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabio Quagliarella | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Francesco Caputo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Abdelhamid Sabiri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Manolo Gabbiadini | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fabio Quagliarella | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manolo Gabbiadini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdelhamid Sabiri | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Lasagna | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kevin Lasagna | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Henry | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Fabio Quagliarella | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Filip Đuričić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 67% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sampdoria 3–1 Hellas Verona Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hellas Verona v Sampdoria?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hellas Verona v Sampdoria?
The most confident call it got wrong was Manolo Gabbiadini at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.