Serie A · 22/23

Spezia v Atalanta

How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Spezia2 – 2 Atalanta 4 Jan 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Duván Zapata	shots total	1+	98%	2	✓
Ademola Lookman	shots total	1+	98%	2	✓
Rasmus Højlund	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Luis Muriel	shots total	1+	94%	3	✓
M'bala Nzola	shots total	1+	92%	2	✓
Teun Koopmeiners	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Daniel Maldini	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Mario Pašalić	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Emmanuel Gyasi	shots total	1+	81%	1	✓
Éderson	shots total	1+	81%	0	✗
Simone Bastoni	shots total	1+	81%	2	✓
Duván Zapata	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Daniel Maldini	fouls drawn	1+	77%	0	✗
M'bala Nzola	fouls committed	1+	75%	4	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match cards	O4.5	57%	6 cards	✓
Match goals	O2.5	56%	4 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓

Dig deeper

Spezia & Atalanta player stats→ Spezia players & stats→ Atalanta players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Atalanta 3–2 Spezia May 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works