Serie A · 22/23

Atalanta v Spezia

How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Atalanta3 – 2 Spezia 3 May 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 9 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Duván Zapata	shots total	1+	94%	2	✓
Luis Muriel	shots total	1+	94%	1	✓
Jérémie Boga	shots total	1+	94%	0	✗
Mario Pašalić	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Eldor Shomurodov	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Teun Koopmeiners	shots total	1+	86%	2	✓
Duván Zapata	fouls drawn	1+	83%	1	✓
Davide Zappacosta	shots total	1+	81%	3	✓
Éderson	shots total	1+	79%	0	✗
Simone Bastoni	shots total	1+	79%	0	✗
Salvatore Esposito	fouls drawn	1+	74%	0	✗
Éderson	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗
Jérémie Boga	fouls drawn	1+	73%	2	✓
Luis Muriel	fouls drawn	1+	73%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	54%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	33%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Atalanta & Spezia player stats→ Atalanta players & stats→ Spezia players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Spezia 2–2 Atalanta Jan 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works