SSC Napoli v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SSC Napoli beat Spezia 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Khvicha Kvaratskhelia for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Kevin Agudelo for 1+ tackles (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Agudelo | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hirving Lozano | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Simeone | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Matteo Politano | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matteo Politano | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Simeone | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stanislav Lobotka | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Piotr Zieliński | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mehdi Bourabia | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Simone Bastoni | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 27% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 12% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 0–3 SSC Napoli Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SSC Napoli v Spezia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SSC Napoli v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kevin Agudelo at 97% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.