Udinese v Hellas Verona
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Udinese drew with Hellas Verona 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Keinan Davis for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Vakoun Issouf Bayo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vakoun Issouf Bayo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdou Harroui | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Mosquera | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Keinan Davis | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iker Bravo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sandi Lovrić | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martin Frese | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniel Mosquera | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amin Sarr | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Nelsson | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Zemura | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cheikh Niasse | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 44% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hellas Verona 1–3 Udinese Jan 2026
- Udinese 0–1 Hellas Verona Mar 2025
- Hellas Verona 0–0 Udinese Jan 2025
- Hellas Verona 1–0 Udinese Apr 2024
- Udinese 3–3 Hellas Verona Dec 2023
- Udinese 1–1 Hellas Verona Jan 2023
- Hellas Verona 1–2 Udinese Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Udinese v Hellas Verona?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Udinese v Hellas Verona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vakoun Issouf Bayo at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.