1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FSV Mainz 05
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FC Heidenheim lost to 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Sheraldo Becker for 1+ shots total (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Stefan Posch for 1+ tackles (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stefan Posch | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stefan Schimmer | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Budu Zivzivadze | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Conteh | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Niklas Dorsch | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Caci | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonas Föhrenbach | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eren Dinkçi | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim Jan 2026
- 1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 Feb 2025
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–2 1. FC Heidenheim Sep 2024
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 May 2024
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stefan Posch at 92% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.