1. FC Heidenheim v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FC Heidenheim drew with Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (83%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Benedikt Gimber for 1+ fouls committed (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malik Tillman | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benedikt Gimber | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Niklas Dorsch | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernest Poku | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ibrahim Maza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Exequiel Palacios | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Tella | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Budu Zivzivadze | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malik Tillman | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6–0 1. FC Heidenheim Nov 2025
- 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–2 1. FC Heidenheim Nov 2024
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–1 1. FC Heidenheim Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Heidenheim v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Heidenheim v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Benedikt Gimber at 74% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.