1. FSV Mainz 05 v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Stefan Posch for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Benedict Hollerbach for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Posch | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benedict Hollerbach | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benedict Hollerbach | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 5 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dominik Kohr | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 53% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Aug 2025
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 Dec 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 May 2024
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 Apr 2023
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–3 VfL Wolfsburg Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v VfL Wolfsburg?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Benedict Hollerbach at 79% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.