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Bundesliga · 24/25

Borussia Dortmund v VfL Bochum 1848

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Borussia Dortmund4 – 2 VfL Bochum 1848 27 Sep 2024
8/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Bochum 1848 4–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Serhou Guirassy for 1+ shots total (85%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Jamie Gittens for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Felix Brych refereed this match 3.20cards/game 0.78×vs league 41games
Felix Brych's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Serhou Guirassy shots total 1+ 85% 6
Jamie Gittens shots total 1+ 82% 2
Jamie Gittens fouls drawn 1+ 82% 0
Ibrahima Sissoko fouls committed 1+ 81% 0
Serhou Guirassy fouls drawn 1+ 80% 2
Julien Duranville shots total 1+ 80% 1
Karim Adeyemi shots total 1+ 80% 3
Philipp Hofmann shots total 1+ 78% 1
Karim Adeyemi fouls drawn 1+ 75% 0
Matúš Bero fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Julien Duranville fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Moritz Broschinski fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Moritz Broschinski shots total 1+ 73% 1
Anthony Losilla fouls committed 1+ 72% 1

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match goals O2.5 74% 6 goals
BTTS Yes 64% Yes
Match cards O4.5 39% 2 cards

How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Borussia Dortmund v VfL Bochum 1848?

8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Borussia Dortmund v VfL Bochum 1848?

The most confident call it got wrong was Jamie Gittens at 82% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.