Darmstadt 98 v VfB Stuttgart
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Darmstadt 98 lost to VfB Stuttgart 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Deniz Undav for 1+ shots total (88%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jamie Leweling for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Leweling | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Serhou Guirassy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Polter | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Atakan Karazor | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Chris Führich | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fabian Holland | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Angelo Stiller | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Deniz Undav | shots on target | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamie Leweling | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josha Vagnoman | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 56% | 9 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Darmstadt 98 Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Darmstadt 98 v VfB Stuttgart?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Darmstadt 98 v VfB Stuttgart?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jamie Leweling at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.