FC Augsburg v Darmstadt 98
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Augsburg lost to Darmstadt 98 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ermedin Demirović for 1+ shots total (82%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mads Pedersen for 1+ fouls drawn (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermedin Demirović | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sven Michel | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dion Drena Beljo | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mads Pedersen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sven Michel | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthias Bader | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabian Holland | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim Skarke | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dion Drena Beljo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Phillip Tietz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Darmstadt 98 0–6 FC Augsburg Mar 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Augsburg v Darmstadt 98?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Augsburg v Darmstadt 98?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mads Pedersen at 74% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.