FC Augsburg v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Amoura for 1+ shots total (82%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Elvis Rexhbeçaj for 1+ fouls drawn (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elvis Rexhbeçaj | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fabian Rieder | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elias Saad | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elias Saad | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mert Kömür | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andreas Skov Olsen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elias Saad | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Eriksen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 54% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 FC Augsburg Feb 2026
- FC Augsburg 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC Augsburg Nov 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 FC Augsburg Mar 2024
- FC Augsburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 FC Augsburg Apr 2023
- FC Augsburg 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Augsburg v VfL Wolfsburg?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Augsburg v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Elvis Rexhbeçaj at 76% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.