FC St. Pauli v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli lost to Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Danel Sinani for 1+ fouls committed (76%, had 1). Its clearest miss: James Sands for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sands | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Andrich | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernest Poku | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Axel Tape | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Chima Fujita | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andreas Hountondji | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 52% | 8 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 44% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC St. Pauli Feb 2026
- FC St. Pauli 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 FC St. Pauli Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The most confident call it got wrong was James Sands at 78% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.