FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli lost to VfL Wolfsburg 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Vinícius Souza for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mattias Svanberg for 1+ fouls committed (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Dźwigała | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yannick Gerhardt | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
| Connor Metcalfe | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Connor Metcalfe | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli Jan 2026
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC St. Pauli Mar 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mattias Svanberg at 73% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.