Hamburger SV v FC St. Pauli
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hamburger SV lost to FC St. Pauli 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Andreas Hountondji for 1+ shots total (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Yussuf Poulsen for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yussuf Poulsen | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yussuf Poulsen | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yussuf Poulsen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Chima Fujita | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| James Sands | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean-Luc Dompé | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emir Sahiti | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC St. Pauli 0–0 Hamburger SV Jan 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hamburger SV v FC St. Pauli?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hamburger SV v FC St. Pauli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yussuf Poulsen at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.