Fouls won (drawn) — the market for players who get fouled
Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often lags.
How SharpXI models it
We model the player's recency-weighted fouls-won rate with shrinkage and minutes scaling, adjusted by how often the opposition commits fouls, through a Negative Binomial for P(fouls won ≥ line), then de-vig the price with Shin's method.
Go deeper: How we model fouls won →
Where the value tends to sit
A skilful dribbler against a foul-prone defence is the classic fouls-won edge — the same match-up that drives fouls committed, seen from the other side.
Bundesliga — how this market behaves
Across 7,923 graded Bundesliga predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded 1+ foul won in 47.1% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 14.4% here, against La Liga 16.9%, Serie A 15.7%, Premier League 15.1%, Ligue 1 14.4% and Championship 12.8%. Team goals is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Bundesliga leaders this season
In the 25/26 Bundesliga season, Johan Manzambi (SC Freiburg) leads for fouls won at 3.35 per 90, ahead of Antonio Nusa (2.83) and Jonas Wind (2.69). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi | SC Freiburg | 3.35 | 96% |
| Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig | 2.83 | 77% |
| Jonas Wind | VfL Wolfsburg | 2.69 | 75% |
| Tiago Tomás | VfB Stuttgart | 2.51 | 59% |
| Derry Scherhant | SC Freiburg | 2.48 | 65% |
| Arnaud Nordin | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2.47 | 54% |
| Jamal Musiala | FC Bayern München | 2.36 | 73% |
| Michael Olise | FC Bayern München | 2.25 | 78% |
| Elias Saad | FC Augsburg | 2.16 | 80% |
| Ezequiel Fernández | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2.16 | 70% |
| Mikkel Kaufmann | 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.14 | 50% |
| Alex Král | 1. FC Union Berlin | 2.12 | 40% |
Frequently asked
What's the difference between fouls won and fouls committed?
Fouls won are the free kicks a player earns by being fouled; fouls committed are the ones they concede. They're separate markets with separate models.
Which players win the most fouls?
Typically low-centre-of-gravity dribblers and forwards who hold the ball up. The SharpXI market page lists the current Bundesliga leaders.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.