Holstein Kiel v 1. FSV Mainz 05
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Holstein Kiel lost to 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Nadiem Amiri for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Hong Hyun-seok for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Burkardt | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hong Hyun-seok | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Phil Harres | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jae-sung Lee | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Shuto Machino | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benedikt Pichler | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Steven Skrzybski | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Finn Porath | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Burkardt | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hong Hyun-seok | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominik Kohr | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Holtby | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 64% | 1 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Holstein Kiel Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Holstein Kiel v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Holstein Kiel v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
The most confident call it got wrong was Hong Hyun-seok at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.