Holstein Kiel v SV Werder Bremen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Holstein Kiel lost to SV Werder Bremen 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Oliver Burke for 1+ shots total (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Benedikt Pichler for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Burke | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marvin Ducksch | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Phil Harres | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Steven Skrzybski | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Benedikt Pichler | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Felix Agu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shuto Machino | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Phil Harres | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Bernhardsson | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jens Stage | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Bernhardsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benedikt Pichler | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Finn Porath | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Stage | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 57% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SV Werder Bremen 2–1 Holstein Kiel Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Holstein Kiel v SV Werder Bremen?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Holstein Kiel v SV Werder Bremen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Benedikt Pichler at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.