SC Freiburg v Borussia M'gladbach
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Freiburg beat Borussia M'gladbach 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Igor Matanović for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Isac Lidberg for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanović | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Isac Lidberg | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derry Scherhant | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robin Hack | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shuto Machino | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hugo Bolin | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim Kleindienst | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Philipp Treu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yuito Suzuki | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tim Kleindienst | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Igor Matanović | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Philipp Sander | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Stöger | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Freiburg 2–1 Borussia M'gladbach Feb 2026
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg Oct 2025
- Borussia M'gladbach 1–2 SC Freiburg Apr 2025
- SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia M'gladbach Nov 2024
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–3 SC Freiburg Mar 2024
- SC Freiburg 3–3 Borussia M'gladbach Nov 2023
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg Mar 2023
- SC Freiburg 0–0 Borussia M'gladbach Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Freiburg v Borussia M'gladbach?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Freiburg v Borussia M'gladbach?
The most confident call it got wrong was Isac Lidberg at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.