SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Paderborn 07 beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kevin Paredes for 1+ fouls drawn (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Adam Daghim for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Paredes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonas Wind | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Steffen Tigges | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sven Michel | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sven Michel | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ruben Müller | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Klaas | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stefano Marino | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 61% | 9 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 SC Paderborn 07 May 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adam Daghim at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.