SV Werder Bremen v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SV Werder Bremen drew with Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Skelly Alvero for 1+ tackles (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kofane | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Skelly Alvero | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Justin Njinmah | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Bittencourt | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Senne Lynen | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrice Čović | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karim Coulibaly | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Felix Agu | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Claudio Echeverri | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarell Quansah | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yukinari Sugawara | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Exequiel Palacios | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 SV Werder Bremen Jan 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 SV Werder Bremen Mar 2025
- SV Werder Bremen 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Oct 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–0 SV Werder Bremen Apr 2024
- SV Werder Bremen 0–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Nov 2023
- SV Werder Bremen 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Mar 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 SV Werder Bremen Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SV Werder Bremen v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SV Werder Bremen v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Skelly Alvero at 92% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.