TSG Hoffenheim v Holstein Kiel
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before TSG Hoffenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Andrej Kramarić for 1+ shots total (93%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Dennis Geiger for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hložek | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mergim Berisha | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andrej Kramarić | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kevin Akpoguma | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anton Stach | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Florian Grillitsch | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Geiger | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Drexler | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Andrej Kramarić | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tymoteusz Puchacz | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Geiger | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tymoteusz Puchacz | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anton Stach | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Holstein Kiel 1–3 TSG Hoffenheim Jan 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v Holstein Kiel?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v Holstein Kiel?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dennis Geiger at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.