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Bundesliga · 24/25

VfL Bochum 1848 v SV Werder Bremen

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

VfL Bochum 18480 – 1 SV Werder Bremen 7 Dec 2024
10/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before VfL Bochum 1848 lost to SV Werder Bremen 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Marvin Ducksch for 1+ shots total (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Bernardo for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Felix Brych refereed this match 3.20cards/game 0.78×vs league 41games
Felix Brych's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Marvin Ducksch shots total 1+ 85% 1
Ibrahima Sissoko fouls committed 1+ 83% 1
Justin Njinmah shots total 1+ 81% 2
Bernardo fouls committed 1+ 80% 0
Koji Miyoshi shots total 1+ 77% 0
Gerrit Holtmann shots total 1+ 77% 1
Justin Njinmah fouls drawn 1+ 74% 0
Gerrit Holtmann fouls committed 1+ 74% 2
Jens Stage fouls committed 1+ 74% 1
Jens Stage shots total 1+ 73% 1
Philipp Hofmann fouls committed 1+ 73% 0
Koji Miyoshi fouls committed 1+ 72% 1
Niklas Stark fouls committed 1+ 72% 2
Oliver Burke shots total 1+ 72% 1

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 62% No
Match goals O2.5 59% 1 goals
Match cards O4.5 32% 2 cards

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

Dig deeper

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Bochum 1848 v SV Werder Bremen?

10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on VfL Bochum 1848 v SV Werder Bremen?

The most confident call it got wrong was Bernardo at 80% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.