VfL Wolfsburg v FC Bayern München
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg lost to FC Bayern München 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Harry Kane for 1+ shots total (88%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jamal Musiala for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Olise | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lovro Majer | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leon Goretzka | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Bischof | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Jackson | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 76% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 66% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Bayern München 8–1 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2026
- FC Bayern München 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 FC Bayern München Aug 2024
- FC Bayern München 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg May 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 FC Bayern München Dec 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–4 FC Bayern München Feb 2023
- FC Bayern München 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v FC Bayern München?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v FC Bayern München?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jamal Musiala at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.