Man City v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Man City lost to Real Madrid 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (96%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Omar Marmoush for 1+ shots total (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Marmoush | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 7 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoine Semenyo | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Rayan Cherki | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodri | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fran García | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 16% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid 3–0 Man City Mar 2026
- Real Madrid 1–2 Man City Dec 2025
- Real Madrid 3–1 Man City Feb 2025
- Man City 2–3 Real Madrid Feb 2025
- Man City 1–1 Real Madrid Apr 2024
- Real Madrid 3–3 Man City Apr 2024
- Man City 4–0 Real Madrid May 2023
- Real Madrid 1–1 Man City May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Man City v Real Madrid?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Man City v Real Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Omar Marmoush at 97% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.