Real Madrid v Man City
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Madrid beat Man City 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Antoine Semenyo for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antoine Semenyo | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sávio | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rayan Cherki | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodri | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico O'Reilly | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man City 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 2026
- Real Madrid 1–2 Man City Dec 2025
- Real Madrid 3–1 Man City Feb 2025
- Man City 2–3 Real Madrid Feb 2025
- Man City 1–1 Real Madrid Apr 2024
- Real Madrid 3–3 Man City Apr 2024
- Man City 4–0 Real Madrid May 2023
- Real Madrid 1–1 Man City May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Madrid v Man City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Madrid v Man City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Erling Haaland at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.