PSV Eindhoven v Sevilla
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven drew with Sevilla 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Youssef En-Nesyri for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Ivan Rakitić for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef En-Nesyri | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Ocampos | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Rakitić | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Suso | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sow | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergiño Dest | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jerdy Schouten | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergiño Dest | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots on target | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óliver Torres | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Ocampos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sevilla 2–3 PSV Eindhoven Nov 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Sevilla Feb 2023
- Sevilla 3–0 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Sevilla?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Sevilla?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ivan Rakitić at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.