Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sevilla lost to PSV Eindhoven 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Youssef En-Nesyri for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Dodi Lukebakio for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Ocampos | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Rakitić | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Ocampos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Juanlu Sánchez | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergiño Dest | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcos Acuña | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nemanja Gudelj | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sow | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Sevilla Oct 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Sevilla Feb 2023
- Sevilla 3–0 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dodi Lukebakio at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.