John Busby
Over the last 10 Championship games John Busby has officiated, the average is 4.20 cards a match — in line with the league average of 4.01. That's 4.2 yellow a game, with no red card in the 10. The away side sees more cards — 2.3 to 1.9 a game, in line with the league's 0.4 gap. 5+ cards landed in 40% of those games (4 of 10), from a 18.8% foul-to-booking rate. Penalties come at about the league's rate: 14 awarded in 99 matches, 0.14 a game against a league average of 0.17. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 10 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls John Busby turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Championship season on record.
| Measure | Busby | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.80 | 4.01 |
| vs league | 0.95× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| Fouls / match | 21.4 | 21.9 |
| Penalties awarded / match | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Penalties awarded (total) | 14 in 99 | — |
| Red cards shown | 8 | — |
| Matches on record | 101 (4 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 8 Championship games John Busby took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Pen | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers19 Sep | 2–2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | 25 |
| Derby County v Birmingham City12 Sep | 1–2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Cardiff City v Sheffield United29 Aug | 2–2 | 4 1 pen | 4 | 0 | 1 | 23 |
| Wrexham v Watford22 Aug | 1–1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | 24 |
| Queens Park Rangers v Derby County25 Apr | 2–3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Watford v Sheffield United18 Apr | 0–2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Charlton Athletic v Preston North End11 Apr | 1–2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Birmingham City v Blackburn Rovers3 Apr | 0–1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
● a red card▪ a penalty awarded in that match
Frequently asked
How many cards does John Busby give per game?
John Busby averages 3.80 cards a game across 101 Championship matches — 5% below the league average of 4.01. On a John Busby appointment, the model multiplies every player's booking chance by 0.95.
Is John Busby a strict referee?
No — slightly more lenient than most. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and John Busby runs at 17.8% against a league average of 18.3%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does John Busby's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is John Busby's card rate?
It rests on 101 career matches, a solid record. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.