AFC Ajax v FC Groningen
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax beat FC Groningen 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Thom van Bergen for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thom van Bergen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mats Seuntjens | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Metu | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| David van der Werff | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sean Steur | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tika de Jonge | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Travis Hernes | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anton Gaaei | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Groningen 3–1 AFC Ajax Mar 2026
- AFC Ajax 2–0 FC Groningen Dec 2025
- FC Groningen 2–2 AFC Ajax May 2025
- AFC Ajax 3–1 FC Groningen Oct 2024
- FC Groningen 2–3 AFC Ajax May 2023
- AFC Ajax 6–1 FC Groningen Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v FC Groningen?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v FC Groningen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Thom van Bergen at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.