AFC Ajax v Heracles Almelo
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax beat Heracles Almelo 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Oliver Valaker Edvardsen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Bryan Limbombe for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Oliver Valaker Edvardsen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kian Fitz-Jim | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luka Kulenović | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | shots on target | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Limbombe | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oliver Valaker Edvardsen | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ajdin Hrustić | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anton Gaaei | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Heracles Almelo 0–3 AFC Ajax Apr 2026
- AFC Ajax 4–0 Heracles Almelo Feb 2025
- Heracles Almelo 3–4 AFC Ajax Oct 2024
- Heracles Almelo 2–4 AFC Ajax Jan 2024
- AFC Ajax 4–1 Heracles Almelo Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v Heracles Almelo?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v Heracles Almelo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bryan Limbombe at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.