AFC Ajax v SC Heerenveen
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax drew with SC Heerenveen 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (91%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Julian Brandt for 1+ shots total (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Maxence Rivera | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcos Leonardo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdellah Ouazane | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dylan Vente | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luca Oyen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jacob Trenskow | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ringo Meerveld | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youri Regeer | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maxence Rivera | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Heerenveen 0–0 AFC Ajax May 2026
- AFC Ajax 1–1 SC Heerenveen Nov 2025
- SC Heerenveen 0–2 AFC Ajax Jan 2025
- AFC Ajax 1–0 SC Heerenveen Aug 2024
- SC Heerenveen 3–2 AFC Ajax Feb 2024
- AFC Ajax 4–1 SC Heerenveen Nov 2023
- SC Heerenveen 2–4 AFC Ajax Mar 2023
- AFC Ajax 5–0 SC Heerenveen Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v SC Heerenveen?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v SC Heerenveen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Julian Brandt at 72% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.