Excelsior v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Excelsior drew with AFC Ajax 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Wout Weghorst for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kasper Dolberg for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wout Weghorst | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Rayane Bounida | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jerolldino Bergraaf | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oliver Valaker Edvardsen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miliano Jonathans | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sean Steur | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Naujoks | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rayane Bounida | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 2–2 Excelsior Sep 2026
- AFC Ajax 1–2 Excelsior Nov 2025
- AFC Ajax 2–2 Excelsior Apr 2024
- Excelsior 2–2 AFC Ajax Aug 2023
- Excelsior 1–4 AFC Ajax Jan 2023
- AFC Ajax 7–1 Excelsior Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Excelsior v AFC Ajax?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Excelsior v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kasper Dolberg at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.