Eredivisie 25/26

Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen

How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Feyenoord2 – 4 NEC Nijmegen 23 Nov 2025

13~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Feyenoord lost to NEC Nijmegen 2–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Ayase Ueda for 1+ shots total (96%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Luciano Valente for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials-22% cards vs the league average

Bas Nijhuis refereed this match 2.50cards a gameleague 3.19 78games

Bas Nijhuis's card record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Ayase Ueda	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Sem Steijn	shots total	1+	94%	2	✓
Anis Hadj Moussa	shots total	1+	91%	4	✓
Leo Sauer	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Luciano Valente	shots total	1+	87%	0	✗
Ayase Ueda	shots on target	1+	82%	1	✓
Quinten Timber	shots total	1+	77%	1	✓
Koki Ogawa	shots total	1+	77%	1	✓
Tjaronn Chery	shots total	1+	77%	3	✓
Kento Shiogai	shots total	1+	74%	2	✓
Bryan Linssen	shots total	1+	74%	3	✓
Sem Steijn	shots on target	1+	73%	1	✓
Başar Önal	shots total	1+	72%	3	✓
Noé Lebreton	shots total	1+	64%	2	✓

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

Feyenoord & NEC Nijmegen player stats→ Feyenoord players & stats→ NEC Nijmegen players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen?

13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen?

The most confident call it got wrong was Luciano Valente at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works