Heracles Almelo v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Heracles Almelo lost to PSV Eindhoven 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Ismael Saibari for 1+ shots total (96%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Myron Boadu for 1+ shots on target (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dennis Man | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Couhaib Driouech | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Myron Boadu | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Naci Ünüvar | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lequincio Zeefuik | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joey Veerman | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Man | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Myron Boadu | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 4–3 Heracles Almelo Dec 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Heracles Almelo May 2025
- Heracles Almelo 1–3 PSV Eindhoven Aug 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heracles Almelo Feb 2024
- Heracles Almelo 0–6 PSV Eindhoven Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Heracles Almelo v PSV Eindhoven?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Heracles Almelo v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Myron Boadu at 76% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.