PSV Eindhoven v Heracles Almelo
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles Almelo 4–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ismael Saibari for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Couhaib Driouech for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Couhaib Driouech | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dennis Man | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jizz Hornkamp | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luka Kulenović | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joey Veerman | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Guus Til | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Couhaib Driouech | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Armando Obispo | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Heracles Almelo 1–3 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Heracles Almelo May 2025
- Heracles Almelo 1–3 PSV Eindhoven Aug 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heracles Almelo Feb 2024
- Heracles Almelo 0–6 PSV Eindhoven Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Heracles Almelo?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Heracles Almelo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Couhaib Driouech at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.