Heracles Almelo v Sparta Rotterdam
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Heracles Almelo beat Sparta Rotterdam 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Tobias Lauritsen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ajdin Hrustić for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Lauritsen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Oufkir | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yvandro Borges Sanches | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mitchell Van Bergen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jizz Hornkamp | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lance Duijvestijn | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bryan Limbombe | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sayfallah Ltaief | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ajdin Hrustić | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Toornstra | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Oufkir | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tobias Lauritsen | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tristan van Gilst | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan Žambůrek | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 Heracles Almelo Jan 2026
- Heracles Almelo 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam Jan 2025
- Sparta Rotterdam 0–0 Heracles Almelo Aug 2024
- Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Heracles Almelo Apr 2024
- Heracles Almelo 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Heracles Almelo v Sparta Rotterdam?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Heracles Almelo v Sparta Rotterdam?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ajdin Hrustić at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.