NEC Nijmegen v PEC Zwolle
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Younes Namli for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Başar Önal for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koki Ogawa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Younes Namli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Başar Önal | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tjaronn Chery | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koen Kostons | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noé Lebreton | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thijs Oosting | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shola Shoretire | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sami Ouaissa | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koki Ogawa | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamiro Monteiro | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kodai Sano | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen Aug 2026
- PEC Zwolle 2–2 NEC Nijmegen Oct 2025
- PEC Zwolle 0–1 NEC Nijmegen Jan 2025
- NEC Nijmegen 1–0 PEC Zwolle Aug 2024
- NEC Nijmegen 2–2 PEC Zwolle Apr 2024
- PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on NEC Nijmegen v PEC Zwolle?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on NEC Nijmegen v PEC Zwolle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Başar Önal at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.