SC Telstar v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Telstar lost to AFC Ajax 0–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jorthy Mokio for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdellah Ouazane | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tolu Arokodare | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jelani Seedorf | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fofin Turay | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Brouwer | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anton Gaaei | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rui Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tyrone Owusu | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Prince Aning | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Telstar 2–3 AFC Ajax Jan 2026
- AFC Ajax 2–0 SC Telstar Aug 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Telstar v AFC Ajax?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Telstar v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jorthy Mokio at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.