Eredivisie market

Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often lags.

How SharpXI models it

We model the player's recency-weighted fouls-won rate with shrinkage and minutes scaling, adjusted by how often the opposition commits fouls, through a Negative Binomial for P(fouls won ≥ line). Fouls won are quoted one side only, so the margin cannot be removed from the price and stays in the comparison.

Go deeper: How we model fouls won

Where the value tends to sit

A skilful dribbler against a foul-prone defence is the classic fouls-won edge — the same match-up that drives fouls committed, seen from the other side.

Eredivisie — how this market behaves

Across 1,853 graded Eredivisie predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ foul won in 46.8% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 13.5% here, against Premier League 17.9%, Ligue 1 16.0%, La Liga 15.7%, UEFA Champions League 15.6%, Scottish Premiership 15.6%, UEFA Nations League 14.6%, Bundesliga 14.4%, UEFA Europa League 14.1%, Serie A 13.9%, Championship 12.1%, UEFA Conference League 9.8% and EFL Cup 9.6%

Eredivisie leaders this season

In the 26/27 Eredivisie season, Édouard Michut (Fortuna Sittard) leads for fouls won at 3.69 per 90, ahead of Thom van Bergen (2.77) and Dylan Mbayo (2.64). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.

Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.

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