Almería v Athletic Club
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Almería drew with Athletic Club 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Raúl García for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Iñaki Williams for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raúl García | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Asier Villalibre | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álex Berenguer | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ander Herrera | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Choco Lozano | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Choco Lozano | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Robertone | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Iker Muniain | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dion Lopy | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Robertone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marc Pubill | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iddrisu Baba | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 7 | ✓ |
| Adrián Embarba | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Athletic Club 3–0 Almería Oct 2023
- Almería 1–2 Athletic Club Apr 2023
- Athletic Club 4–0 Almería Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Almería v Athletic Club?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Almería v Athletic Club?
The most confident call it got wrong was Iñaki Williams at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.